The third force in Malaysian politics

The third force in Malaysian politics

Wednesday, 08 October 2008 09:18
By Wong Chin Huat, The Nut Graph

THE "third force" seems to be a phrase that is capturing the imagination of political parties and civil society.

Instead of joining the Barisan Nasional (BN) or the Pakatan Rakyat, why can't a party find its own niche and survive? Why can't it struggle independently and choose to cooperate with the two larger players on its own terms?

In other words, why not become a king-maker and make the best of it?

Take a look at the offers made to East Malaysian politicians (still paltry, but nevertheless the most generous since 1963), and it is easy to understand how good it is to be a king-maker if you cannot, or do not, want to be king.

National two-partyism

In Germany, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) was the indispensible junior partner in the coalition government during the greater part of the 1960s until 1982. While the larger Christian Democratic Union-Christian Socialist Union and Social Democratic Party fought to take the lead, they couldn't do it without the FDP's support.

In Britain, the centrist Liberal Democratic Party (Lib Dem) is always the beneficiary when voters get disillusioned with both the Conservatives on the right and Labour on the left. While the Lib Dems have never surpassed the Big Two in terms of votes, they have grown substantially at the local level.

Has there ever been a success story of a third force in Peninsula Malaysia? The answer is no. Technically, you must have a second force before you can have a third. We have had only brief periods of national two-partyism — around 1990, 1999, and now in 2008.


Tan Chee Khoon founded Pekemas after he got
disillusioned with Gerakan, which he also co-
founded (Source: Academy of Medicine of
Malaysia)

Before 1990, DAP and PAS were very much the second force in their respective strongholds: the urban seats for the former, and the Malay heartland for the latter. The third force — whether it was the late Tan Sri Tan Chee Khoon's Parti Keadilan Masyarakat Malaysia (Pekemas), or Datuk Mohamad Nasir's Barisan Jama'ah Islamiah Se Malaysia (Berjasa) — never won in more than one election. Others, like the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Parti Hizbul Muslimin Malaysia (Hamim), and even the respectable Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM) fared even worse.

Berjasa is perhaps the best example of what can happen in third-party dynamics. The fallout between Kelantan Menteri Besar Datuk Mohd Nasir and party president Tan Sri Mohd Asri Muda in the late 1970s resulted in the former setting up Berjasa as a splinter party. It chose not to join the BN, but would cooperate with Umno in attacking PAS.

While the strategy caused great damage to PAS in the 1978 state election, Berjasa's success only lasted one election.

Spoiler alert


Why was Berjasa's success so short-lived? The simple answer is that at the local level, the third party acts as a spoiler, not a king-maker, under the First-Past-the-Post electoral system.

Since there is only one winner, every vote for the third or fourth candidate would be wasted. Rational voters therefore abandon third candidates, no matter how good they may be, preferring to support the lesser evil between the top two. Hence, you cannot be a king-maker at the national or state level unless you become the first or second force at the local level.

And the national or state scenario may in turn change the local scene. Even Berjasa, though strong at the local level, got winnowed in Kelantan. It seems there was room for only one Islamist party, and the religious voters chose PAS over Berjasa.


It makes sense for Yong Teck Lee's Sabah
Progressive Party to pull out of the BN but
not join the Pakatan Rakyat (Source:
pilihanraya.com.my)

So, pulling out of the BN but not joining the Pakatan Rakyat makes great sense for Yong Teck Lee's Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP). If it contests the seats previously contested by its erstwhile non-Muslim BN partners, it stands a good chance to garner most of the anti-BN votes.

Even if the DAP and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) join the fray, they will likely be seen as spoilers, since they have relatively weaker organisational capacities in East Malaysia.

Any East Malaysian party that leaves the BN can count on riding on the anti-BN wave. This is why crossovers or pullouts will eventually happen before the next elections as long as Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim still wields influence.

The BN parties will all be tempted by the advantage of being the first to leave the BN — whether they end up joining the Pakatan Rakyat or not — and expanding their territories at the expense of other parties.

The same may not be said about Umno's partners in the peninsula, namely Gerakan and the MCA.

Let's say an independent Gerakan or the MCA appears as the third force between the Pakatan Rakyat (namely DAP or PKR) and the BN (whether represented by Umno or some non-Malay proxy). It is still quite unlikely that voters — especially non-Malays — will choose them over the Pakatan Rakyat.

It is clear that the next general election will be about whether to end the BN/Umno's rule. So why should you waste your vote on a party — even if it is successful — to make the outcome even more uncertain?

The way out

Gerakan and the MCA have only two viable choices — stay with the BN or join the Pakatan Rakyat. Unfortunately, neither option is currently attractive.

Since non-Malay voters will be set to throw Umno out, if these parties were to stay with Umno, they would get thrown out, too. However, if they joined the Pakatan Rakyat, they may not be given good seats. After all, would the DAP be so kind to return currently held seats in Penang, Perak and Selangor to Gerakan and the MCA?


Can Gerakan save Umno?

For Gerakan, there is one more option — join PKR en bloc and get seat allocations as a faction. For the MCA, this option is almost nonexistent as its leaders and members who are accustomed to monoethnic politics may feel very out of place in multiracial PKR.

So, what should Gerakan and MCA do? Reforming themselves is pointless unless they can also reform the BN. The next elections will effectively be a national referendum on the survival of the BN — and how many non-Malays would vote to keep Umno and the BN in power?

Therefore, these two parties have to forget about being the third force. Their best bet is to give Umno and the BN an ultimatum. If Umno is forced to oblige, they can claim credit and arrest the attrition of support. If Umno refuses or even runs amok, they will become martyrs and have better bargaining power when they join the Pakatan Rakyat.

For their own self-interest, their wish list should include local elections. Given the relatively mono-ethnic electorate in most municipal jurisdictions, non-Malay voters can then feel free to divest between the DAP/PKR and the MCA/Gerakan without worrying that it would result in an Umno-dominated council.

Umno also stands to gain by introducing local elections, since Malay voters in the Pakatan Rakyat-held states can feel secure in splitting their votes between Umno and PKR/PAS without worrying that Malay representation in government will be weakened.

But can Gerakan or the MCA make such a bold decision? Will they dare to save Umno and the BN with this extreme measure? Only time will tell.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A political scientist by training and a journalism lecturer by trade, Wong Chin Huat uses the Federal Constitution as his "bible" to fend off the increasingly intolerable evil called "state".

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Golden Opportunity if Pak Lah Resigns - MPs can determine new PM - Anwar? Najib? Kit Siang?

If Abdullah Ahmad Badawi resigns as Prime Minister, then it will be a great opportunity for the MPs to choose the next Prime Minister, and for the "Yang di-Pertuan Agong shall first appoint as Perdana Menteri (Prime Minister) to preside over the Cabinet a member of the House of Representatives who in his judgment is likely to command the confidence of the majority of the members of that House.."(Art.43(2)(a) Federal Constitution)

There is no such thing in our constitution that the current PM can hand over to his chosen successor.

Remember Art. 43(4)

If the Prime Minister ceases to command the confidence of the majority of the members of the House of Representatives, then, unless at his request the Yang di-pertuan Agong dissolves Parliament, the Prime Minister, shall tender the resignation of the Cabinet.
Once Abdullah Ahmad Badawi resigns, that means the door opens for Anwar Ibrahim or Mohd Najib Razak or Muhyiddin or any other to show that they do (or are likely to) command the confidence of the majority of the members of that House" - and the Yang di-pertuan Agong can proceed to appoint a new Prime Minister...

So, irrespective of whether PM resigns now or in March 2009 or in June 2010, the door flies open for a new Prime Minister, one who has the confidence of the majority of the Members of Parliament - not the confidence of the majority of the members of UMNO, not the confidence of the majority of the members of BN...

But many believe that Abdullah Ahmad Badawi will not relinquish power...

Sabah Progressive Party President Yong Teck Lee does not think that Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi will relinquish the Umno presidency without a fight - as many political pundits have predicted.
"The reasons being that he has the majority support of Umno members and the people of Malaysia who have voted for BN and he has a comfortable majority in Parliament," Yong was quoted as saying by Bernama. - Malaysiakini, 8/10/2008, Sapp's Yong: PM won't give up top post



We must also pay attention to what Ku Li has been saying in the media...recalling what happened after the 1969 General Elections, when the Alliance (UMNO-MCA-MIC) only managed to win 51% of the seats in Parliament, i.e. 74 out of 144 seats contested.

Then there was that May 13, Emergency Proclamation,....and then formation of a Coalition Government (sounds like this "Unity Government" that Tengku Razaleigh is talking about), and in the next General Elections in 1974, BN won 88% of the seats in Parliament (i.e. 135 out of 154 seats contested.) [see my earlier posting - http://charleshector.blogspot.com/2008/09/of-past-elections-historical-facts-in.html]

The Alliance political formula was widened to become a larger political cooperation under the Malay--non-Malay politics to the whole nation. This concept was spread with the formation of a Coalition Government at the Federal and State levels. This cooperation of various and multiple parties was later institutionalized as BARISAN NASIONAL (BN) and was formally registered on the 1st July 1974. Besides UMNO, MCA and MIC, BARISAN NASIONAL was made up of six other parties, which before this was on the other side of the fence.

Those parties were PAS ( which was later expelled from BN ), Parti Progresif Rakyat ( PPP ), Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia ( GERAKAN ), Sarawak United People's Party ( SUPP ), Parti Pesaka Bumiputra and USNO from Sabah. Only DAP and PSRM refused to join the Coalition. BN, which used the new symbol - the 'dacing' had strengthen and stabilize the Malaysian political situation, and relationship among races had never become closer. Later, other political parties, especially in Sabah and Sarawak joined the BN. These parties are Berjaya from Sabah, SNAP and PBDS from Sarawak.

In the 1990's many new parties surfaced to join Barisan Nasional as a result of the political turmoil in Sabah when PBS walked out of Barisan Nasional. These parties are Akar Bersatu, SAPP, LDP, PBRS and PDS. Today BN consists of 14 parties.

The birth of BN signaled the beginning of a new era for Malaysia which is now ruled by a multiple race component parties, a struggle of the united community. Among the main objective of BN is the struggle to strive for cooperation among races, peace, harmony and justice to ensure Malaysia will continue to develop and prosper, in line with vision 2020.- Source:- Barisan Nasional Penang Website

And it seems that Pakatan Rakyat leaders may be also considering the formation of the next generation Barisan Nasional....or BN version 2.0..


Veteran Umno politician Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah has discussed with PAS, DAP and PKR leaders the possibility of forming a national unity Federal Government as a way out of the current political and economic stalemate.
As a precedent, he cited former premier Tun Abdul Razak Hussein’s Barisan Nasional model that came from the original Alliance coalition of Umno, MCA and MIC.

Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, DAP adviser Lim Kit Siang and PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang had sought appointments with the former Finance Minister. - Star, 7/10/2008 - Ku Li: Form unity government


The Tengku Razaleigh moves forward suggesting that the current BN become a single entity - hence moving away from being race-based political parties. (This is not new - for I believe, Mahatahir also did raise this matter before. I believe Abdullah Ahmad Badawi also did mention something like this before). Is he just talking about current BN or the new "BN ver 2.0" - If the later, then we may be moving towards a single party system.

After calling for the formation of a national unity Federal Government with opposition parties, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah has proposed that Barisan Nasional become a single political entity.
The veteran politician said he was ready to deal with Umno members who may reject the move, stating that although Barisan becomes a single political entity, the special rights of the Malays would be upheld in the Federal Constitution.

“There is nothing to fear as it benefits everyone,” he said, adding that there was no need to amend the Constitution with regards to Islam being the official religion and Bahasa Malaysia the official language.

Tengku Razaleigh, the nation’s longest serving parliamentarian and former finance minister, said he was open to discussion over a single Barisan party instead of the present 13 coalition partners system after the Sabah Progessive Party pulled out last month.

“I am suggesting that Barisan become a multi-racial party for all. Umno members can be direct members in it,” he said in an interview. - Star, 8/10/2008 - Tengku Razaleigh suggests BN become a single political entity


Now, Anwar Ibrahim has been saying that he has the required number for Pakatan Rakyat to become the Federal Government - and he is still saying that...

But maybe, there is another problem - i.e. the number of Muslim and non-Muslim MPs in the Opposition Coalition. PAS clearly said that it is not interested if non-Muslims outnumber Muslims...


In the latest edition of the Harakah (29/9/2008), the PAS President has allegedly stated that if the number of Muslim Malay representative is not the majority in Pakatan Rakyat, then PAS will pull out of the Pakatan Rakyat..

I tried to find this report online - but alas, I could not find it in the online version of the Harakah but did manage to find 2 sources, the 1st is as follows:-

Dipetik Harakah menerusi edisi terbaru bertarikh 29 September (hari ini), Abdul Hadi berkata, apabila jumlah wakil rakyat bukan Islam melebihi kerusi anggota Dewan Rakyat beragama Islam, maka PAS akan membuat keputusan - sedia menarik diri daripada kerajaan Pakatan Rakyat.

Kata beliau, PAS telah meletakkan syarat agar kerajaan Pakatan Rakyat itu dikuasai oleh wakil-wakil Islam Melayu.

Jika Islam tidak majoriti, bekas Ketua Pembangkang di Parlimen itu berkata, pembentukan kerajaan pimpinan Pakatan Rakyat tidak akan disertai oleh PAS.
"PAS akan tarik diri terang-terang jika tidak mendapat majoriti Islam. Itu syarat pertama," kata beliau - from Depa Kata Blog, Amaran PAS: Tolak kerajaan pusat Pakatan Rakyat jika majoriti bukan Islam [http://depa-kata.blogspot.com/2008/09/amaran-pas-tolak-kerajaan-pusat-pakatan.html]

The 2nd source is :-
Selepas tarikh 16 September berlalu tanpa kejutan, PAS pula mengulangi pendiriannya tidak akan menyertai kerajaan Pakatan Rakyat jika kerajaan baru persekutuan yang dicita-citakan, majoritinya dikuasai oleh wakil rakyat bukan Islam kelak.

Pendirian itu dinyatakan oleh Presidennya, Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang pada Ceramah Isu-isu Semasa di Dungun, Terengganu minggu lalu.

Abdul Hadi yang juga Ahli Parlimen Marang lebih mengharapkan wakil rakyat Umno menyertai PAS jika mahu membina kekuatan orang Melayu dan Islam di negara ini.

Dipetik Harakah menerusi edisi terbaru bertarikh 29 September (hari ini), Abdul Hadi berkata, apabila jumlah wakil rakyat bukan Islam melebihi kerusi anggota Dewan Rakyat beragama Islam, maka PAS akan membuat keputusan - sedia menarik diri daripada kerajaan Pakatan Rakyat.

Kata beliau, PAS telah meletakkan syarat agar kerajaan Pakatan Rakyat itu dikuasai oleh wakil-wakil Islam Melayu.

Jika Islam tidak majoriti, bekas Ketua Pembangkang di Parlimen itu berkata, pembentukan kerajaan pimpinan Pakatan Rakyat tidak akan disertai oleh PAS.

"PAS akan tarik diri terang-terang jika tidak mendapat majoriti Islam. Itu syarat pertama," kata beliau.- mStar, 29/9/2008, Amaran PAS: Tolak kerajaan pusat Pakatan jika majoriti bukan Islam [http://www1.mstar.com.my/cerita.asp?file=/2008/9/29/mstar_mutakhir/20080929125641&sec=mstar_mutakhir] - http://charleshector.blogspot.com/2008/09/pas-president-should-focus-on-change.html

So, maybe there may be some truth in this "UNITY GOVERNMENT" ...or BN ver. 2.0.

What do you think?